Thursday, January 24, 2013

Roger Federer vs. Andy Murray - What does Australian Open Stats indicate?

“Be the Best in whatever you do”

Known to everyone, Roger Federer has nothing to prove in this regards as he is arguably the best in tennis ever. Andy Murray on the other hand showed us glimpses last year that he is on the verge of becoming the best in the tennis at present.

With the backing of Ivan Lendl, Andy Murray has transformed his defensive style to an offensive one. Not only this, he has also improved significantly in the area of mental fortitude. Roger Federer on the other hand does not require any introduction in this field. He is undoubtedly one of the most aggressive players in the history of tennis.

So then what will decide the fate of the most awaited clash in Australian Open?

In my opinion, it will be the numbers below which can show us a glimpse of what we might have in store. Here is a summary of how both these players have played so far in Australian Open 2013:

Roger Federer
Andy Murray
First Serve
1st Serve Points Won
2nd Serve Points Won
Net Points Won
Break Points Won
Receiving Points Won
Unforced Errors

Roger Federer:  Clearly we can see that he is way ahead of Andy Murray in terms of his service points, net points won and winners in the tournament so far (highlighted as yellow).

Andy Murray: He has a strong advantage in the form of being one of the best returners of the game and the numbers (highlighted as blue) also shows the same. In terms of unforced errors also, he is way behind Roger Federer.

Then one might ask what has these numbers told us?

The result is very clear to me:  The player who will attack his opponent where he is unprepared will be the one who will win.  IF Roger Federer is better in his return game than Andy Murray, he is the winner.
If Murray can come out and beat Roger in the area of service points won, he will be the winner.

As Sunzi had once said, Attack your opponent where he is unprepared, appear where you are not expected”.  

Federer will come out thinking Murray’s service as a weak point in his arsenal and if he can attack that, he will win. Murray will think of Federer’s return game as a weak link. If Murray can attack and win more net points and service points than Federer, he will win.

If you don’t believe me, check out the stats for Wimbledon finals and Olympics finals. You will see what I am saying because in Wimbledon Federer outplayed Murray in return points and break points won. In Olympics, Murray outscored Federer in the service points and net points won.

Just a precaution: Don’t go by the age or three and a half hours QF match of Roger Federer because age is just a number and at this level, everyone is extremely fit to recover from a five hour match as well. By the way, Did anyone see Maria Sharapova's match yesterday - It can be the same for Andy Murray. Just saying:)

Who is your pick?

For the overall hard court stats, you can go on this link: 

The Big Three (Djokovic, Federer, Murray) & Del Potro- Statistical Precursor to Australian Open 2013 – Part 1

If you have any questions, you can mail me at

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