Wednesday, July 4, 2012

What does Wimbledon Stats say : Novak Djokovic vs. Roger Federer?

What a ride it has been for Federer in Wimbledon! From back spasms to pure genius, we have seen it all from this champion who played mind-blowing tennis to earn a record 32nd GS semifinal appearance. Roger Federer defeated Mikhail Youzhny 6-1, 6-2, 6-2  for the 14th time  in his career. 

On the other hand, defending champion Djokovic won his QF against Florian Mayer in his usual business style to reach the SF of his favorite GS of the year. Djokovic played aggressive tennis throughout the match  to defeat him in straight sets : 6-4, 6-1, 6-4.  The scream and the fist at the end of the match point by Nole, was a good signal to everyone that he is ready for his showdown against 6 times Wimbledon Champion Roger Federer. 

So the big question is who will win the biggest showdown in Wimbledon this year? Let's have a look at the Wimbledon stats so far for both these players:

  1st serve (%)
  1st serve points won  (%)
  2nd serve points won  (%)
  Net points won  (%)
  Break points won  (%)
  Receiving points won  (%)
  Unforced errors


Clearly we can see both these players are pretty much even on their serves and unforced errors. Both of these players are playing good aggressive tennis with control and precision. The only weak area which might prove to be an advantage for Djokovic is the break points won. Historically we have seen that break point conversion rate is the sore point in Federer's game against Nadal/Djokovic.  

If Federer really has to win against Djokovic, he will have to be at his best even in break point conversion rate.  For me, this match between them is worthy of a Wimbledon final and the stakes are pretty high for both these individuals. Roger Federer, if he wins this SF, he will have a chance to win his 17th GS and claim World no.1 ranking (equaling Pete Sampras record of most weeks at World No.1)  On the other hand for Djokovic, if he loses this SF, he will not be able to defend his Wimbledon title and also possibly lose his World No.1 ranking to Federer. 

Both these players have played each other 26 times and Federer leads 14-12. But what's interesting is that Djokovic has defeated Federer 4 times out of their 5 meetings in last two years. BUT(a big one) these players have never met in Wimbledon so far. So it will be interesting to see what will happen in this classic showdown. 

Roger Federer:" So I think Djokovic has been able to put a lot of these things aside, and he seems a very complete and happy player out there right now.  I think all these little things create quite something at the very top, I think." 

Novak Djokovic: "Federer has variety, great variety, in his game, I guess.  He uses his serve very well.  He opens up the court.  He uses that slice really well to get the balls to bounce low.  You know, he’s very aggressive at times.  He can defend well." 

Verdict: On match stats, Djokovic has the edge definitely but there is a huge chance that Federer might come out firing like French Open last year knowing that history might be redefined on his victory. But I will go with Djokovic (only slightly). 

 All in all we are set for a match that the entire tennis fraternity, fans will be waiting for the showdown of the year.

So who will win:
All right, let me tell you what winning means? you're willing to go longer, work harder, give more than anyone else." Vince Lombardi


If you have any questions- You can mail me at apekshaha@gmail.com!/ApekshaHA or 


  1. statistics look pretty even to me..break point conversion rate favors Djoker but if i am not is fedex who actually has created more break points..well i just hope he converts them against djoker because he doesn't give it away that easily..heart says federer :-)

  2. thanks for the stats, they are very close. 50/50 match.

  3. Sorry. But statistics is meaningless in this case. On their way to meet each other, the two of them have played against 10 different opponents who probably have 10 different playing styles and personalities. What's going to be determined is their match-up with each other. And since they have not met on grass, it's really hard to gauge either way.

    It's going to take someone who knows tennis extremely well (on both surface and techniques) to be able to pre-determine what their match-up is going to be like.

    Suffice to say that on grass, Rog has competed against players with Novak's playing style many many times - albeit players with less tenacity. Whereas, I don't think Novak has played against anyone with Rog's variety on this surface before. It might be a rude awakening for Novak at first.

  4. postingan yang bagus tentang"What does Wimbledon Stats say : Novak Djokovic vs. Roger Federer?"

  5. Nole has the edge...He's making history and winning is all that matters to him, especially against Fed...

  6. Well for me, wished they both had gone down in the earlier rounds but with the cupcake draws they were destined to meet each other. Having said that, I'd say Fed has more motivations to win this match coz there happens to be no Rafa come Sunday to face.


    1. please dont mention name loser second round in this semis......please.....

  7. Good Work Apesha. I am a sports blog writer myself and I understand the importance of statistics and analysis..

    Good to see blogs on Non-Cricket related items... I do not cover Cricket at all since I feel it is over rated in this country...

    You can catch me at

    Keep writing!!

    Cheers :)

  8. Federer is my favorite player his game is unique and perfect, He is a master in tennis.

    Premiership Tickets