Monday, January 9, 2012

The Big Four (Djokovic, Nadal, Federer, Murray) & Del Potro- Statistical Precursor to Australian Open 2012: Part 1


Every tennis fan is eagerly waiting for 16th Jan when the world’s top players will come together to fight for their supremacy in Australian Open. 2011 brought in lots of surprises and results which made it an epic year.  No matter what people thought or predicted at the start of the year last time, one man- Novak Djokovic stood tall and proved them all wrong by writing his own story in a golden way. 

2012 can prove to be the same this time. Will it be the year for Djokovic continued supremacy, or Nadal will rise back again to reclaim his throne of World No.1?  Can it be the year when the myth of 30 is broken by Federer or the year when Murray wins his first GS title? Or maybe – just maybe the year when the dark horse- Juan Martin Del Potro finally wins the race second time in his career!

No matter what, but 2012 definitely promises to be a cracker of a year and I hereby will take you to a series of articles focusing on the statistics of the game and let you decide who looks to be the most threatening player of all:

In my first part, let me show you the career & 2011 hard court statistics of the current top players in tennis world:

Rank (AO)
Player
Career Record
Winning %
2011 Record*
Winning %
2011 AO Result
Win
Loss
Win
Loss
1
Novak Djokovic
247
65
79%
49
8
86%
Winner
2
Rafael Nadal
263
83
76%
31
11
74%
QF
3
Roger Federer
495
102
83%
49
8
86%
SF
4
Andy Murray
233
66
78%
42
12
78%
Final
5
David Ferrer
174
115
60%
31
14
69%
SF
6
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
136
58
70%
42
16
72%
3R
11
Del Potro
128
61
68%
36
16
69%
2R
*Includes Singles and Doubles.

Clearly as we can see that Federer has the best career hard court % record and the kind of form he has been at the end of 2011, he seems to be a formidable opponent to beat this year.

Djokovic was lethal last year on hard court and especially at Australian Open- his favorite surface, he can prove to be invincible if he can carry on his form. Already he had a wonderful start to 2012 by winning the exhibition tournament at Abu Dhabi. The only player who defeated him and came close to defeating him again was Roger Federer. This year could prove to be no different.

Murray has a better record on hard court than Nadal. I think it will depend on the draw this year if Murray can reach the finals or not. If he comes up against Djokovic in the SF, then it will be really tough for him to go past that stage. Nadal has a bigger problem in hand where he has to free himself from Djokovic’s trap and until and unless he finds a solution, he will be in a really tough spot.

In the words of Sunzi: "To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself.". 

So Who do you think will win?

If you have any questions- You can mail me at apekshaha@gmail.com,

4 comments:

  1. Hmm..interesting, however Federer and Djokovic definitely didn't have the same win/loss for 2011. You've got identical numbers for those two in your table. I mean, Djokovic didn't lose 8 matches that whole year.

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  2. You are right, he lost only 5 matches on hard court in 2011 in Singles. But he also lost 3 more matches on hard court in Doubles. Hence the 8 losses in the table above. (The data for 2011 Record includes both singles and doubles).

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  3. also because fed is in nasal's half this time i have to lean towards rafa even though fed played so well at the end of last year. on a slow hard court, if rafa is playing well, he could beat fed and get to the final.

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  4. He can but Rafa is in a state where he is a bit fragile now a days in terms of mental toughness and also Fed defeated him convincingly around 1.5 months back at ATP World Tour Finals, so it will be a a very close encounter this year. I think Federer because of his tremendous run late last year and confidence can have a slight advantage this time!

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