Friday, August 5, 2011

The Top 4 (Djokovic/Nadal/Federer/Murray), Del Potro And The Story Of Hard Court Statistics So Far: Part II


In the first part, we had looked at the overall 2011 game statistics for the top 4. So I thought, why not now look at the hard court statistics of the major contenders of US open and try to see where they stand before the start of Rogers Cup and American Hard Court Season?

And it turns out we have some interesting stats lined up for us:


2011
Career
Overall
Total Matches Played
Matches Won
% Win
Total Matches Played
Matches Won
%Win
Djokovic
49
48
98%
478
372
78%
Nadal
59
51
86%
632
523
83%
Federer
48
39
81%
965
782
81%
Murray
38
29
76%
399
296
74%
Del Potro
46
36
78%
259
177
68%
Hard Court
Djokovic
24
24
100%
285
225
79%
Nadal
23
19
83%
321
246
77%
Federer
27
23
85%
568
469
83%
Murray
12
8
67%
263
201
76%
Del Potro
28
21
75%
171
116
68%


Key Takeaways:

1) Novak Djokovic: He has improved dramatically this year in his game. His win % has shooted from 78 to 98 (48-1 record) which goes on to show why he is deservedly World No. 1.On Hard Court, he has won 24/24 matches this year! He seems to be the strongest contender for the US Open this year. Any doubts?

2) Rafael Nadal: If we look at his overall career win % and hard court win %, one can deduce easily that hard court is not his favorite surface ( 83% as compared to a low 77%). No wonder he has won US Open once in his career. But the good part is he has won 83% of his matches this year on hard court so there are signs of improvement. He needs to get over the mental barrier of playing against Djokovic and start believing in himself more.

3) Roger Federer: Roger Federer has been pretty much consistent in his overall and hard court performance. He is a better player on hard court as compared to Nadal with 83 % wins career wise and 85% this year. Plus the fact that he is the only player to beat Djokovic this year will further boost his confidence to go and win his first GS of the year.

4) Andy Murray and Del Potro: Here comes the most interesting part: Del Potro has been playing better than Andy Murray this year on Hard Court. Del Potro was 2009 US champion and the stats also clearly show  (75% against 67% of Murray) that he will be a bigger threat to the TOP 3 than Andy Murray in US Open. Not a good sign for Murray!(Plus he is down from 76% to 67 % wins in 2011)

People say that stats are not indicative of future performances, but I disagree as one can see where he/she stands and how much work they need to do in order to beat the best. Djokovic being a perfect example of how he has consistently improved in the last one year and his record also suggest the same!

(It’s a highly debatable topic and would love to know your viewpoint on this! So please leave your comments.)


If you have any questions- You can mail me at apekshaha@gmail.com

8 comments:

  1. I agree that Delpo will probably be a bigger threat to the TOP 3 than Andy Murray in US Open, but not because of his stats which are misleading; let me reminded you that after Australia he lost three straight 1st round HC matches (two were technically 2nd round matches because he had a bye in the 1st)only because he was "hangover" from the loss in the final and that's why he has only 67% (I'm sorry but the stats in this case don't show the real picture). So, Delpo is a bigger threat but only because he has won the US Open before while Murray still hasn't won it (or any other slam for that matter), not because of the stats.

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  2. Hi Moran, The point about stats is to gauge a person's performance throughout the year.I have never indicated stats define future outcomes but they certainly show the current form of players which definitely has a bearing on the outcome. Djokovic lost in FO SF but won Wimbledon. So it's not a definite conclusion about the "Hangover". Delpo's performance shows that he is playing better and is tougher mentally to handle defeats and still comeback and win matches.

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  3. You are correct that stats can be indicative where are you stand and improve your weaknesses due to which you not able to achieve your target. But there are unforseen events which you can not predict like injury, illness etc. so there is a chance to fail in prediction. I also think that Djokovic is most probable contender

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  4. @Anonymous- Very well said! I also think Djokovic is the strongest contender. With Rogers Cup and Cincinnati lined up in next two weeks, we will get a better picture of who stands where in terms of strong favorites.

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  5. WOW!
    Excellent Analysis....

    Thanks a lot for sharing the information...

    By the way check out the total information about the US Open Tennis 2011 like players, points, prize money, US Open Tennis Schedule 2011, results, US Open Tennis 2011 Prize Money , and more from US Open Tennis 2011 Results

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  6. The stats seem to tell us least about Andy Murray, because he's the most unpredictable player. If you'd arbitrarily looked at his performance following the Australian Open until the Clay Court season started this year, you'd have concluded he would have trouble beating a top 50 player, let alone a top 5. Yet a few weeks later he was pushing an almost unplayable Novak Djokovic to a couple of points from defeat on his (Murray's) least favorite surface. At the US Open, he's as likely to lose in the first round as make the final, and I think the reason for that lies in his mind, not his tennis game.

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  7. @Cheri- Good point!For Murray or Nadal now, its completely a battle of minds. More than their game, they need to believe in themselves and go out there and play it out in crucial moments.Self belief is the critical ingredient for their success in future!

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